Islamabad, Pakistan – On June 9, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was sworn in for his third term as the country's leader, with seven counterparts from neighboring nations among the select audience.

The event, held under an orange evening sky with chosen regional leaders present, was reminiscent of Modi's previous inaugurations in 2014 and 2019.

However, unlike 2014, the Prime Minister of Pakistan was absent from the gathering.

A decade ago, images of then-Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif holding hands with Modi during the 2014 ceremony signaled hopeful prospects for the strained Indo-Pak relations. These hopes, however, have dwindled over the years. As Modi embarks on his third term, aided by coalition partners, experts predict he will adopt a stringent stance on Pakistan, showing little interest in reducing tensions with the nuclear-armed neighbor.

“Modi will engage with regional neighbors who were invited to his inauguration, but not Pakistan,” stated Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani diplomat. “His administration is likely to persist with its tough approach toward Pakistan, with which he has shown no intention of engaging over the past five years. This appears unlikely to change.”

Initial indications seem to support Lodhi’s perspective.

A message and an attack

On the day Modi took his oath, an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir’s Reasi district resulted in at least nine casualties and over 30 injuries when a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims was targeted. This incident was followed by additional attacks in Kashmir within a week, leading to multiple confrontations between security forces and attackers, resulting in fatalities and injuries.

Indian authorities attributed these attacks to Pakistani involvement, a claim denied by Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, who accused Indian officials of habitually making such “irresponsible statements.”

Despite these tensions, former Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif attempted to rekindle his past rapport with Modi through a congratulatory message, expressing hope for fostering peace and cooperation between the two nations.

Modi responded positively to Sharif’s message, expressing India’s continual commitment to peace and security.

In contrast, a more reserved congratulatory note came from Pakistan’s current Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif.

Security concerns

Following the Reasi attack, India’s Home Minister Amit Shah vowed to hold those responsible accountable. Historically, India views Pakistan through a security lens, accusing it of inciting unrest in Kashmir and orchestrating various attacks on Indian soil, allegations that Pakistan denies.

Ajay Darshan Behera, an academic at Jamia Millia Islamia University, emphasized that India's stance towards Pakistan remains focused on addressing terrorism. He suggested that Modi’s administration is likely to maintain its indifferent policy towards Pakistan unless a significant terrorist incident occurs.

Past attempts at reconciliation have often been marred by violence. In late 2015, Modi made a surprise visit to Pakistan to attend a wedding in Nawaz Sharif’s family, raising hopes for improved relations. However, these hopes were dashed weeks later when an attack on an Indian Air Force base, allegedly by Pakistani militants, resulted in several deaths, leading to a hardened Indian stance.

Former diplomat Lodhi noted that this tough stance has benefited Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) electorally, particularly in the 2019 Indian elections.

Salman Bashir, another former Pakistani diplomat, argued that Modi faces little compulsion to improve ties with Pakistan, as maintaining an adversarial policy poses minimal costs.

2019 turning point

Modi’s second term victory in 2019 was marked by heightened anti-Pakistan rhetoric, following an attack in Kashmir that killed more than 40 Indian soldiers. India blamed Pakistan and launched strikes on Pakistani territory in retaliation, escalating tensions significantly. This strong stance helped BJP secure over 300 seats in the parliament.

Now, Modi’s domestic challenges have increased, with his party falling short of a majority and requiring coalition support. This internal focus might limit significant foreign policy changes.

Irfan Nooruddin from Georgetown University noted that Modi’s current government might prioritize domestic issues over foreign policy, especially with several state elections on the horizon.

Diplomatic deadlock

Sharat Sabharwal, a former Indian envoy to Pakistan, does not expect significant changes in India’s foreign policy under Modi’s new term. He stated that India might respond positively to an improvement in relations should Pakistan adopt a constructive approach. He emphasized that Pakistan’s antagonistic stance against India imposes a heavier economic burden on itself than on India.

India, with over 1.4 billion people and as the world's fifth-largest economy, is asserting itself more on the global stage, hosting G20 summits and participating in forums like the Quad. Modi’s first trip abroad post-oath was to attend a G7 meeting in Italy.

Conversely, Pakistan is seeking its 24th IMF loan to stabilize its economy amid political and security turmoil. Analysts suggest that a more pragmatic relationship would benefit both economies, with India potentially gaining more.

While improved bilateral ties could benefit traders and farmers on both sides, both nations have preconditions for reengagement. India demands Pakistan cease supporting terrorist groups, and Pakistan wants the restoration of Article 370 in Kashmir.

Experts, like Nooruddin, believe that India should take the lead in improving relations to fulfill its global aspirations, emphasizing a shared responsibility between the two countries.