Islamabad, Pakistan – Just days before Switzerland convenes a global summit to devise a path toward peace in Ukraine, Pakistan is caught in a conundrum – should it attend?

Pakistan has maintained neutrality regarding Russia's war on Ukraine. Analysts suggest that Pakistan, with its population of 236 million, has significant stakes – from Ukrainian arms to Russian oil – making the conclave critical. On the other hand, Pakistan's decision could be influenced by China's boycott of the summit, alongside Russia. China remains Pakistan's most vital strategic ally today.

The Pakistani Foreign Ministry confirmed last month that it received an invitation from Swiss authorities for the two-day summit in Lucerne, commencing on June 15. However, a decision is yet to be made. "Still under discussion," said Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, via WhatsApp on Thursday.

Over 160 nations have been invited to participate, a summit requested by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for Switzerland to host. Ninety countries have confirmed their participation, but neither Moscow nor Beijing will be present.

Tughral Yamin, a former military official and senior researcher at the Institute of Policy Studies Islamabad (IPSI), asserted that it was crucial for Pakistan to take part.

"Pakistan must attend the summit. Pakistan has stakes in the war, with robust defense ties with Ukraine, and is also trying to forge strong relations with Russia, which can supply oil," he told Al Jazeera.

Fahd Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University, agreed, highlighting Pakistan's call for an end to the war while remaining neutral.

"There's the imperative of not wanting to appear aligned with any single party," he stated. "Yet, as this is a peace summit, it's a chance for Pakistan to voice its stance on a crucial regional matter and signal that attending does not equate to taking sides," Humayun told Al Jazeera.

"It underscores our role in de-escalating a global conflict rather than choosing sides. This message can be strategically conveyed to all stakeholders," he added.

Pakistan’s Russia-Ukraine Balancing Act

Pakistan has long-standing relations with Ukraine since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, acquiring high-value Ukrainian arms, including tanks. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicates that Ukraine supplied nearly $1.6bn of weapons to Pakistan until 2020.

However, in recent years, Pakistan has also mended fences with Russia after distancing itself during the Cold War in favor of Western alliances.

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to Russia on the day the war began in February 2022 led him to later claim he was ousted as part of a US conspiracy for trying to boost ties with Russia. The US denied these allegations.

Despite neutrality, reports indicate Pakistan supplied artillery to Ukraine post-war initiation. The Intercept, a US publication, claimed that the US facilitated an IMF bailout for Pakistan in exchange for arms supplied to Ukraine, a claim repeatedly denied by Pakistan.

Even after Khan's ousting, Pakistani leaders continued active diplomacy. Current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met President Putin twice in late 2022, months after Khan’s trip to Moscow.

Pakistan also inked a crude oil deal with Russia in April 2023, receiving the first shipment two months later amid Western pressures to cease buying Russian oil.

Taimur Khan, a research associate at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) specializing in ties with Russia, noted Pakistan could benefit from Moscow’s pivot towards Asia as its ties with the West sour.

Khan expressed scepticism about the summit’s outcomes due to Russia's absence. “The summit is based on President Zelenskyy’s peace proposal, which Russia outrightly rejects. Both main parties are not genuinely interested in peace due to volatile battlefield conditions,” he said.

The Swiss government, although open to it, has yet to invite Russia, which has derided the summit as “absurd.”

China’s recent decision to abstain from the summit adds another layer of complexity for Pakistan.

Will Pakistan Act Opposite to China?

On May 31, China confirmed it would not participate in the Swiss summit.

“China insists an international peace conference must involve both Russia and Ukraine equally, otherwise it lacks substantive impact for peace,” stated Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.

Khan, the ISSI scholar, argued China’s stance should not dictate Pakistan's actions.

"China’s decision not to attend doesn’t mean Pakistan should follow if it does not serve its interests," he said.

Humayun of Tufts University suggested that Pakistan's absence should not harm its relationships with the West.

“If Pakistan opts out, it shouldn't affect its relations with the EU or the US. They understand that Global South countries, including India, navigate their own compulsions and prerogatives as sovereign nations,” he said.

Khan of ISSI added that non-attendance is unlikely to result in economic repercussions, given Pakistan's need for IMF assistance.

“Pakistan's attendance or absence is unlikely to affect IMF assistance driven by the US. This summit appears more about political optics rather than achieving significant results against Russia,” he concluded.