Beirut, Lebanon – Hezbollah launched over 200 projectiles across the southern boundary into northern Israel on Wednesday, marking its most significant assault since the 2006 war.

The incident followed Israel's assassination of Taleb Abdullah, the highest-ranking Hezbollah operative killed since October 8.

Tuesday and Wednesday's events are the most recent escalation in the prolonged conflict between Israel and Lebanon, amid emerging ceasefire discussions between Israel and Hamas.

Since October 7, when Hamas attacked Israel resulting in 1,139 fatalities and around 240 hostages, Israel's counter-offensive has resulted in over 37,000 Palestinian casualties in Gaza.

South Africa has initiated genocide charges against Israel in the International Criminal of Justice for its actions in Gaza.

Is there a connection?

Experts indicated a possible Gaza ceasefire might redirect Israel's military focus to Lebanon, where confrontations with Hezbollah have been ongoing since October 8.

These exchanges have not been proportionate.

According to an Al Jazeera investigation in April, Israel had conducted over five strikes on Lebanon for every Hezbollah attack.

This period saw around 300 Hezbollah members and more than 70 civilians killed by Israel, while Israel reported losing 15 soldiers and 10 civilians.

Israeli war hawks

Despite heightened border tensions, analysts believe Israel is unlikely to expand its conflict with Lebanon without first achieving a ceasefire in Gaza.

"Israel won't escalate its conflict with Lebanon while there's still active fighting in Gaza," Tannous Mouawad, a retired Lebanese army brigadier general, told Al Jazeera. "Once a Gaza ceasefire is in place, Israel will likely turn its attention to Lebanon."

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure domestically, with the new school year approaching and over 90,000 people still displaced from northern Israel.

Politicians argue that Hezbollah must be pushed back for civilians to safely return, although many have decided against coming back.

Netanyahu stated last week that Israel is "ready for a major operation" on the Lebanon border.

"A poll by the Israeli newspaper Maariv showed that over 70% of Israelis want to eliminate Hezbollah," Karim Emile Bitar, a professor at Saint Joseph's University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera.

"Several members of the Israeli war cabinet share this aggressive stance."

"A decision point is nearing, and the Israeli military is well-prepared for it," said Israel's army chief of staff, Herzi Halevi, in early June.

Negative consequences

Pushing for war against Hezbollah and Lebanon does not guarantee an easy victory for Israel.

Bitar asserted that such a war would have severe consequences for both Lebanese and Israelis.

"It won't be easy for Israel," he said. "The idea of occupying southern Lebanon shows a lack of historical understanding."

Israel's 1978 and 1982 invasions and subsequent occupation of southern Lebanon until 2000 led to Hezbollah's formation and eventual Israeli withdrawal.

An invasion now would likely be more challenging for Israel.

Today, Hezbollah is recognized as one of the world's strongest non-state actors, with military capabilities exceeding those of Hamas.

Hezbollah has largely hit military targets in northern Israel, but advancing to areas like Tel Aviv, surrounded by civilians, would complicate matters for Israel.

"Northern Israeli settlers are already upset with the government," Amal Saad, author of "Hizbu'llah Politics and Religion", told Al Jazeera.

Targeting a populated city could "widen existing divides and showcase potential damage," she added. "Israel can't endure what Gaza or Lebanon can."

Recently, Hezbollah has used previously unused weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles, which it claimed forced Israeli jets to retreat.

This action was "symbolic" because it challenged Israel's aerial dominance, Saad explained. Hezbollah has also downed several Israeli drones in recent weeks.

A more extensive conflict in Lebanon could have severe repercussions for both sides.

US officials warned that escalating against Hezbollah could attract involvement from Iran and other allied forces.

Lebanon, already suffering economically, would likely face further devastation. "Lebanon cannot handle the consequences," noted Mouawad, the retired brigadier general.