Washington, DC – Representative Jamaal Bowman, a freshman member of the progressive “squad” in the US Congress, is confronting a critical challenge to his political career.

On Tuesday, Bowman competes in the Democratic primary for New York’s 16th congressional district. Despite the rarity of incumbent challenges, Bowman is embroiled in one of the most expensive House primary races in history.

Progressive activists and politicians argue that Bowman’s outspoken criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza has triggered this intense battle, backed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and its allies seeking his defeat.

Bowman is among a limited but growing group in Congress challenging the US's unwavering support for Israel. This stance has made him a key target, according to analysts.

“Without the Gaza conflict and the significant impact of AIPAC and outside forces, I doubt this primary would exist,” Democratic consultant and UpShift Strategies co-CEO Doug Gordon told Al Jazeera.

While Gordon acknowledges that George Latimer’s challenge, a former county executive with deep district ties, reflects broader progressive-versus-centrist conflicts in the Democratic Party, the primary’s main driver is the divisive US policy on Israel, intensified by the October 7 attack on Israel and subsequent Gaza war.

This is a “fission point within the Democratic Party,” now coming to a significant confrontation in this primary.

‘Record-Spending in This Race’

The Gaza war has deepened fissures within the Democratic Party. Rising Gaza casualties, reports of war crimes, and potential genocide have exacerbated the divisions.

Bowman was among the first US lawmakers to call for a Gaza ceasefire after Israel's October bombardment began, joining progressives like Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, Cori Bush, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in urging President Joe Biden to halt the conflict.

The 48-year-old Bronx native, a former middle school principal, gained national recognition in 2020 when he defeated Eliot Engel, a staunch pro-Israel establishment figure, with support from progressive groups like Justice Democrats.

The diverse demographics in Bowman’s district, blending urban Bronx areas and Westchester County suburbs, have consistently made him one of the most vulnerable squad members.

A bizarre incident where Bowman activated a Capitol fire alarm before a government spending vote also added to his perceived electoral vulnerabilities.

AIPAC noticed, launching a major media offensive against Bowman in late May. Bowman’s district has seen an unprecedented $12 million in attack ads funded by AIPAC’s super PAC, the United Democracy Project (UPD).

Super PACs, sanctioned by the 2010 Citizens United Supreme Court ruling, can spend unlimited amounts in US elections if not coordinated with candidates’ campaigns.

In Bowman’s race, AIPAC’s expenditure accounts for over half of the $22 million spending, supplemented by $6 million from Bowman’s campaign, as reported by the Westchester-based Journal News.

AIPAC’s strategy has labeled Bowman as too extreme for the district—a typical tactic, according to Usamah Andrabi, communications director for Justice Democrats, which supports progressive candidates of color.

Noticing AIPAC’s increasing primary involvement, Andrabi cited AIPAC’s $5 million expenditure against progressive Democrat Summer Lee in her House bid the previous year. Bowman’s primary, he posits, will set a trend for other high-profile progressives like Cori Bush, facing an August challenge.

“AIPAC’s record spending in this race surpasses any prior election, becoming the top Republican donor in Democratic primaries,” Andrabi remarked to Al Jazeera.

AIPAC’s disproportionate spending on Democratic primaries, despite bipartisan donations, was highlighted in a Politico analysis, illustrating its dominant role in influencing such elections.

“AIPAC’s impact in Democratic primaries within two cycles is unrivaled,” Andrabi continued. “Launching its super PAC last cycle, they spent $26.5 million across nine primaries. Bowman’s race alone has seen half that expenditure.”

On June 13, Bowman directly addressed the financial influx, releasing an ad targeting AIPAC’s backing of Latimer—possibly a first in campaign spots.

Racial issues were prominent in Bowman and Latimer’s debate earlier this month. In one instance, Latimer claimed Bowman’s constituency was Dearborn, Michigan, a city with a significant Arab-American population and a Gaza ceasefire advocacy hub. Bowman condemned this as an anti-Arab and Islamophobic “dog whistle.”

Latimer has maintained a pro-Israel stance while minimally criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He dismissed AIPAC’s ad campaign as outside his control and irrelevant to his policy positions.

With community ties and local endorsements, including from Hillary Clinton, Latimer argues he is better attuned to district voters' needs. In contrast, he claims Bowman relies on national progressive support out of step with district needs. Bernie Sanders, a symbol of the party’s progressive wing, has endorsed Bowman.

In their final debate on June 18, Latimer accused Bowman of weaponizing race and dishonesty.

Significance of the Race

Polling suggests Bowman faces a challenging primary battle. An Emerson College poll on June 11 indicated Latimer leading with 48% of Democratic support versus Bowman’s 31%, with 21% undecided.

Analysts agree that Bowman needs to mobilize non-traditional primary voters, given historically low primary turnout.

Regardless of the outcome, Craig Holman from Public Citizen noted that the race highlights the growing influence of external funds in US elections.

“Outside spending surpassing candidates' spending challenges campaign control,” Holman told Al Jazeera. “This trend becoming more common is concerning.”

Democratic strategist Gordon pointed out that external forces are targeting district voters amid Democratic divides over the Gaza war and other issues.

Jeremy Cohan, spokesman for New York’s Democratic Socialists of America, which endorsed Bowman, saw a silver lining in AIPAC’s spending surge.

“To some extent, it signals desperation,” Cohan said, citing polls showing strong Democratic support for a Gaza ceasefire. “They sense the shifting tides and historical momentum.”