United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed growing concern over the escalating conflict and deadly border clashes between Israel's military and Lebanon's Hezbollah fighters.

UN peacekeepers are actively working to calm the situation and prevent "miscalculations" following increased rhetoric and the threat of full-scale conflict on both sides, Guterres said on Friday.

"One rash move – one miscalculation – could trigger a catastrophe that goes far beyond the border and, frankly, beyond imagination," Guterres warned. "The people of the region and the world cannot afford for Lebanon to become another Gaza."

A UN peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, along with unarmed technical observers known as UNTSO, have long been stationed in southern Lebanon to monitor hostilities along the demarcation line between Lebanon and Israel, known as the Blue Line.

"UN peacekeepers are on the ground working to de-escalate tensions and help prevent miscalculation," Guterres said. "The world must say loudly and clearly: immediate de-escalation is not only possible – it is essential. There is no military solution."

Hezbollah has launched rockets and drones into Israel following Israel's war on Gaza last October, with Israel responding through airstrikes and heavy artillery fire. The ongoing conflict has caused hundreds of deaths and displaced tens of thousands along the border.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant have warned of seriously retaliating against Hezbollah, indicating they might "turn Beirut into Gaza." Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has, in turn, cautioned about no rules of restraint if Israel launches a major attack on Lebanon.

‘Israelis will pay a huge price’

Experts debate whether the heightened threats are deterrents or signs of impending war. Regarding Israel's conflict with Gaza, experts note that Hezbollah poses a significantly greater threat than Palestinian armed groups.

"Hezbollah is more trained, more organized with even more lethal weapons compared to Hamas's Qassam Brigades. Thus, the consequences for Israel will be severe," said Hassan Barari, a professor of international affairs at Qatar University.

Orna Mizrahi, a former official in Israel’s National Security Council, highlighted the complexity of Israel's options. "The big question is how much Israel can endure under this threat. Although the government may not want war, it seems we are heading that way," she said.

Nasrallah’s recent statements have heightened concerns in Lebanon about a broader conflict, although some diplomats and analysts see his threats as a response to Israeli provocations.

"This seems like part of a deterrent strategy," said Hubert Faustmann, a professor of history and international relations at the University of Nicosia.

"There is a high risk of Israel escalating the confrontation with Hezbollah into a full-scale war, which I don't think Hezbollah wants," Faustmann added, noting that Hezbollah is showing its capabilities in response to potential escalation.

Hezbollah has implied it is not pursuing broader conflict, even as it uses increasingly advanced weaponry.

Although Israel has the most powerful military in the Middle East, Hezbollah has thousands of fighters, many with experience in the Syrian civil war, and a vast arsenal of missiles that can reach cities throughout Israel.

Hezbollah's significant drone fleet adds to the threat, with one drone recently flying over Haifa, showcasing the potential risks to critical infrastructures like power systems.

‘Tall order for Israeli air defences’

Amid fears of broader escalation, concerns grow about overwhelming Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system, which has so far intercepted most of the hundreds of Hezbollah's missiles.

The belief is that Hezbollah feels it has leverage, as a broader war would induce significant damage in Israel, according to Seth G Jones, an analyst at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC.

"Hezbollah's extensive rocket arsenal poses a significant challenge for Israeli air defenses, creating a major problem," Jones stated.

Israel has had painful experiences in Lebanon, holding a buffer zone for nearly two decades after invading in 1982. The 2006 war also heavily impacted both sides.

Political pressure on Netanyahu has intensified with no clear end to the conflict that began eight months ago. Many Israeli towns remain deserted, with around 60,000 people evacuated, reflecting the severe impact on daily life.

Sarit Zehavi, a former Israeli military intelligence official, noted that following the trauma of the October 7 attacks, many Israelis are unlikely to return home while Hezbollah remains a threat.

"For 17 years, we ignored the threat, and now addressing it will be very costly," said Zehavi.