Washington, DC – It has been two weeks since Donald Trump became the first former US president convicted of criminal charges. However, polling data suggests the unprecedented verdict has not significantly swayed public opinion.

On May 30, Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, linked to a hush-money payment to a porn star. Despite the significance, the public reaction has been minimal.

Political experts attribute the muted response to the current, polarized political landscape in the United States. Trump, aiming for re-election in November, still enjoys robust backing within the Republican Party.

Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, attributes the subdued aftermath to the Republican Party and media normalizing a remarkable event. “We have never had a former president or a major party candidate convicted of multiple felonies in over 230 years of American history,” Lichtman told Al Jazeera.

“This is an unprecedented event, yet so far, it doesn’t seem to have swayed public opinion about Trump substantially,” he added.

‘Hush Money’ versus ‘Scheme to Defraud’

Lichtman noted that the reaction is a culmination of Trump’s effort to project both impunity and victimization. Trump claimed in 2016 he could "shoot someone" on Fifth Avenue without losing voters, a statement that seemed prophetic when he won the presidency.

For years, Trump has also framed himself as a target of a political witch hunt, a stance he maintained after his conviction. Lichtman blamed media framing for the tepid public response. “If the media had framed the trial as a fraud on the American public, the reaction might have been different,” Lichtman explained.

“Trump has manipulated the media,” Lichtman added. “Also, the Republican Party has largely accepted his narrative of a rigged system.”

A Voter’s Litmus Test

Trump tied his conviction to Biden's administration during a news conference post-verdict, though without providing evidence. “This is orchestrated by Biden’s people,” he claimed. He also hinted at potential political violence if imprisoned.

Earlier this week, his campaign sent an email referencing the French Revolution, titled “Haul out the Guillotine”. Biden, on the other hand, presented the conviction as evidence of a fair justice system.

Other legal challenges await Trump, with state and federal charges related to his 2020 election loss attempts and classified documents handling. None of these trials are expected to conclude before the November election, making the New York trial a crucial test of voter sentiment on his criminal conviction.

Limited Polling Impact

Trump’s strategies seem to rally his supporters. His campaign claimed $141 million in fundraising in May, with a significant portion donated after the verdict. Yet, polls suggest that electing a convicted felon president garners mixed reactions.

A Reuters-Ipsos poll indicated that only 10 percent of Republicans would be less likely to vote for Trump post-conviction. In contrast, 35 percent said they would be more likely, and 56 percent stated it wouldn’t affect their vote.

The effect was more notable among independent voters: 25 percent were less likely to support Trump, compared to 18 percent who were more inclined. However, the majority (56 percent) said the conviction wouldn't impact their decision.

Despite the verdict, most major polls show Biden and Trump evenly matched. Forecasters slightly favor Biden.

A CBS News and YouGov poll recently showed the candidates nearly tied in key battleground states. The conviction has not swayed most voters significantly, keeping the race neck and neck.

Michael Fauntroy, from George Mason University, noted, “Trump has been affected, but not fatally.”

Will It Impact the Ballot?

The November 5 election is several months away, allowing time for the public’s focus to shift. News such as Hunter Biden’s recent conviction temporarily diverted attention.

Trump’s sentencing on July 11 will also be pivotal. The penalty's severity could influence voter opinions. Fauntroy cautioned, “The sentence may accelerate Republican concern. Jail time, house arrest, or community service could be problematic for Trump.”

Slight changes in polls could impact the election outcome. “A small, immediate impact might lead to a significant ultimate one if Republican discontent holds,” Fauntroy remarked.

Surveys also show most Americans believe the guilty verdict was just, a potential vulnerability Trump may face from his opponents. “It's a slight negative now but could become a substantial issue later,” Fauntroy concluded.