With climate change leading to more extreme weather events globally — from wildfires and hurricanes to floods, heatwaves, and drought — United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres sounded an urgent alarm.

Speaking to reporters on June 5, he remarked, “We are gambling with our planet’s future. It’s essential we find an exit from this path of climate destruction, and we do have the power to steer in the right direction.”

However, in the US, where Guterres made his comments, the climate emergency is overshadowed in the lead-up to the upcoming presidential election.

Environmentalists caution that the November face-off between Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump will influence not only US climate policy but also international efforts.

“The US holds a significant role in global politics and greenhouse gas emissions,” said Ariel Moger from Friends of the Earth Action, a US-based climate advocacy group.

“In many respects, the destiny of our planet rests with American voters,” she told Al Jazeera, adding, “This may sound exaggerated, but it underscores the critical moment we are in.”

Voter priorities

The US, the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter after China, produced an average of 12.9 million barrels of crude oil daily last year, surpassing a previous global record set in 2019.

Nevertheless, climate change has taken a backseat in the presidential campaign, overshadowed by economic issues, immigration, and foreign policy.

“These issues might seem more immediate compared to the vast and complex nature of climate change,” noted Moger.

“Daily concerns like the economy and healthcare may feel more pressing to people than the overarching challenge of climate change.”

Yet, recent polls indicate that a substantial number of Americans want leaders to tackle the climate crisis and prefer candidates committed to enacting necessary policies.

A recent survey by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the Center for Climate Change Communication found that 62% of registered voters favor candidates who promise climate action.

“This support is strong among Democrats, but also present among independents and half of liberal-moderate Republicans,” said Anthony Leiserowitz of the Yale University program.

About four in ten voters also said a presidential candidate’s stance on global warming would be “very important” in their voting decision in November, according to the report.

However, other surveys show that climate change is not a top priority for most Americans, ranking lower than economic concerns, inflation, and other pressing issues.

A May Gallup poll revealed that only 2% of Americans viewed climate change as the most pressing issue, compared to economic problems (36%), government and poor leadership (21%), and immigration (17%).

“Climate change is on the list, but isn’t seen as the foremost issue,” said Ashley Dancer, a University of Colorado Boulder PhD student studying climate change opinion affects presidential elections.

“It is outpaced by issues like the economy, healthcare, education, and crime — those essential concerns,” she said.

Effect on close race

As the US enters summer, wildfires are burning across California and New Mexico, and a heat dome is affecting many parts of the country.

With extreme weather likely to continue, Moger believes climate change will become a more prominent topic in election discussions.

“With more people experiencing unprecedented heat, droughts, fires, and hurricanes, candidates cannot ignore the crisis at hand,” she said.

In a tight election, such as the one anticipated in November, climate change could also swing the vote, Dancer told Al Jazeera.

“Most voters — about two-thirds — are concerned about climate change and want action, favoring Democrats more as this concern grows,” she explained.

This is because Democrats are generally seen as more willing to address climate change compared to Republicans.

Environmental advocates note significant differences between Biden’s and Trump’s climate policies.

Trump exited the Paris climate agreement, sought to expand US territories for oil and gas drilling, questioned the existence of climate change, and promised to roll back Biden’s environmental regulations if re-elected.

Biden, while criticized for approving an oil project in Alaska, has repeatedly highlighted the threat of climate change and encouraged global cooperation.

He rejoined the Paris agreement upon taking office and passed significant climate legislation, like the Inflation Reduction Act, setting emission targets and funding clean energy initiatives.

In a January study, Dancer and her colleagues found that climate change opinion likely influenced the 2020 election in Biden’s favor, potentially enough to change the outcome in key states.

If climate change hadn’t been a concern, Republicans might have seen a 3% swing in the popular vote — a shift that could have been pivotal.

“In a close election, climate change opinion matters,” Dancer stated. “It played a role in 2020 and is likely to do so in 2024, potentially affecting the election outcome depending on its closeness.”

Political communication

Leiserowitz suggests that politicians must effectively communicate their climate policies to engage voters.

“Currently, few Americans, including those concerned about climate change, know much about Biden’s climate policies,” he said.

Recent data show that nearly 40% of registered voters had heard “nothing at all” about the Inflation Reduction Act.

“This indicates Democrats haven’t adequately communicated their achievements to the public,” Leiserowitz commented.

Moger mentioned that while climate action is popular and vital to many key constituencies like young people, voter turnout will be decisive.

“Biden still has an opportunity to take significant steps in climate action,” she stated, describing him as “far from perfect” but warning of severe consequences under another Trump term.

“Under Trump, we’d see more policies leading us toward an uninhabitable planet,” Moger said.

“If the US doesn’t lead by example, the world will suffer not just from poor policies but from ongoing emissions,” she concluded.