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Scenarios for Teams to Make the T20 World Cup Super Eights

Scenarios for Teams to Make the T20 World Cup Super Eights

Analysis on what Pakistan needs, England's chances, and the impact of rain on team qualifications.

Cricket enthusiasts find themselves crunching numbers and making predictions to see if their favorite team will advance to the next round of a world cup.

After 12 days and several rounds of group matches at the ICC T20 World Cup 2024, one team from each of the four groups has advanced to the Super Eight stage, four teams have been eliminated, and 12 teams are vying for the four remaining spots.

Here is Al Jazeera's breakdown of the different scenarios for all four groups and the 20 teams at the end of the matches on June 12.

Fans react after Bangladesh's captain Najmul Hossain Shanto hit a six during the ICC Men's T20 World Cup cricket match between Bangladesh and South Africa at the Nassau County International Cricket Stadium in Westbury, New York, Monday, June 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
Teams now need a mix of good results, healthy net run rates and prayers to qualify for the Super Eights [Adam Hunger/AP]

Group A Qualification Scenarios

Fans react after Bangladesh's captain Najmul Hossain Shanto hit a six during the ICC Men's T20 World Cup cricket match between Bangladesh and South Africa at the Nassau County International Cricket Stadium in Westbury, New York Fans react after Bangladesh's captain Najmul Hossain Shanto hit a six during the ICC Men's T20 World Cup cricket match between Bangladesh and South Africa at the Nassau County International Cricket Stadium in Westbury, New York

All teams in the tournament-opening group have played three matches each. The group now moves to Florida for its last round of matches, but significant rain is forecasted, which could affect the chances of some teams.

India: Qualified

Pakistani cricket fans react as they watch the cricket match between India v Pakistan in the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 in New York, on a big screen in Karachi, Pakistan Pakistani cricket fans react as they watch the cricket match between India v Pakistan in the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 in New York, on a big screen in Karachi, Pakistan

Matches: 3
Points: 6
NRR: 1.137
Remaining fixture: Canada (June 15)
The 2007 champions have won all three games and have made it through.

USA: Favourites to Qualify

Matches: 3
Points: 4
NRR: 0.127
Remaining fixture: Ireland (June 14)
The co-hosts set the tournament on fire with their thrilling win over Pakistan, which was preceded by the opening game win over neighbors Canada. Despite a hard-fought loss against India, all they need now is a win over a struggling Ireland to keep the American dream alive.

If their last game is washed out along with Pakistan's, they will also qualify due to a superior NRR.

Pakistan: Slim Chance

Matches: 3
Points: 2
NRR: 0.191
Remaining fixture: Ireland (June 16)
An all-too-familiar territory for Pakistan fans. Once again, they'll be hoping that the right team in green turns up on match day and praying for favorable results and weather to go their way. Babar Azam’s team began the tournament poorly, losing to debutants USA in a super over and then squandering a winning position against India.

They now need to beat Ireland by a large margin and hope for USA to slip up in their last game, with all of this dependent on the weather in Florida.

Canada: Slim Chance

Matches: 3
Points: 2
NRR: -0.493
Remaining fixture: India (June 15)
The other North American team in this World Cup has not quite matched their neighbors but managed to snag a win over Ireland.

To qualify, they must beat powerhouse India by a big margin and hope that both Pakistan and the USA lose their last games heavily.

Ireland: Out

Matches: 2
Points: 0
NRR: -1.1712
Remaining fixture: Pakistan (June 16)
The Irish had a disappointing tournament, with all hopes of advancing quashed after three losses.

Pakistani cricket fans react as they watch the cricket match between India v Pakistan in the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 in New York, on a big screen in Karachi, Pakistan, June 10, 2024. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
Pakistan will now need their fans’ prayers to have a shot at qualification [Akhtar Soomro/Reuters]

Group B Qualification Scenarios

This group featuring the two limited-overs champions has seen one side secure a spot and the other almost on the way out.

Australia: Qualified

Matches: 3
Points: 6
NRR: 3.58
Remaining fixture: Scotland (June 15)
The 50-over world champions have advanced to the next round with three comprehensive wins.

Scotland: Favourites to Qualify

Matches: 3
Points: 5
NRR: 2.164
Remaining fixture: Australia (June 15)
Scotland could have won their opening game against England but managed to get one point from it after a washout. Big wins over Namibia and Oman have kept them comfortably in second place. They just need to avoid a heavy defeat against Australia.

England: Slim Chance

Matches: 2
Points: 1
NRR: -1.8
Remaining fixture: Oman (June 13), Namibia (June 15)
The defending champions bagged a point in their opening game against Scotland after a washout but were then blown away by Australia. Anything less than two big wins will eliminate them from the tournament.

Namibia: Out

Matches: 3
Points: 2
NRR: -2.098
Remaining fixture: England (June 15)
Namibia managed to beat Oman for their first win of the tournament. However, even if they manage to win against a desperate England team, they will still not qualify due to their point deficit compared to Scotland.

Oman: Out

Matches: 3
Points: 0
NRR: -1.613
Remaining fixture: England (June 13)
Oman's disappointing tournament will end on June 13, irrespective of the result in their last game.

Australia's captain Mitchell Marsh greets England's Chris Jordan
England’s huge loss against Australia has dented their net run rate and hopes for qualification [Ricardo Mazalan/AP]

Group C Qualification Scenarios

Co-hosts West Indies were always going to be favorites for the Super Eights, and they have now made it to the next round, while Afghanistan is likely to follow. New Zealand’s poor form may see them exit the tournament.

West Indies: Qualified

Matches: 3
Points: 6
NRR: 2.596
Remaining fixture: Afghanistan (June 17)
The two-time champions and co-hosts have qualified after three straight wins.

Afghanistan: Favourites to Qualify

Matches: 2
Points: 4
NRR: 5.225
Remaining fixtures: PNG (June 13), West Indies (June 17)
Afghanistan has shown strength in both bowling and batting, making them strong contenders for the title. They need just a point from their last two matches to advance.

Uganda: Mathematical Chance

Matches: 3
Points: 2
NRR: -4.217
Remaining fixture: New Zealand (June 14)
The Cricket Cranes have had a fairy tale run in the T20 World Cup, delighting their fans by beating PNG. However, they need a massive win over New Zealand and a slip-up from Afghanistan to qualify.

Papua New Guinea: Slim Chance

Matches: 2
Points: 0
NRR: -0.434
Remaining fixture: Afghanistan (June 13), New Zealand (June 17)
The Pacific islanders have had a rough tournament. While their NRR is better than two other teams, they must win their last two matches convincingly and hope for a significant loss for Afghanistan.

New Zealand: Slim Chance

Matches: 2
Points: 0
NRR: -2.425
Remaining fixtures: Uganda (June 14), PNG (June 17)
The 2021 finalists have been lackluster this tournament. Even with easier upcoming matches, they need Afghanistan to falter to have any shot at the Super Eights.

new zealand afghanistan
New Zealand were abysmal in their opening match against Afghanistan [Ramon Espinosa/AP]

Group D Qualification Scenarios

The so-called group of death has not entirely lived up to its billing, as one team has progressed unscathed and two others are left to compete for a spot.

South Africa: Qualified

Points: 6
NRR: 0.603
Remaining fixture: Nepal (June 14)
Despite early hiccups in their three games in New York, the Proteas have succeeded in advancing.

Bangladesh: Favourites to Qualify

Matches: 2
Points: 2
NRR: 0.075
Remaining fixtures: Netherlands (June 13), Nepal (June 16)
Bangladesh's form prior to the tournament did not make them favorites, but with wins in their next two fixtures, they could find themselves in the Super Eights.

One win, one loss, and a win for the Netherlands will bring the equation down to NRR.

Netherlands: Favourites to Qualify

Matches: 2
Points: 2
NRR: 0.024
Remaining fixtures: Bangladesh (June 13), Sri Lanka (June 16)
The Dutch defeated the lowest-ranked team in the group, Nepal, but those two points could be crucial in deciding their fate.

A win against Bangladesh will not ensure qualification but can give them an edge going into the final matches.

Nepal: Slim Chance

Matches: 2
Points: 1
NRR: -0.0539
Remaining fixtures: South Africa (June 14), Bangladesh (June 16)
If qualification for the Super Eights was based on passion and spirit, Nepal would be among the first to qualify. Their fans have brought joy to the tournament, but they face tough opponents in their final two games.

However, two improbable wins could still see them through.

Sri Lanka: Out

Matches: 3
Points: 1
NRR: -0.777
Remaining fixture: Netherlands (June 16)
Sri Lanka's disappointing performances at world cups continue as the 2014 champions find themselves out of contention once again.

Source: ALJAZEERA
Source: ALJAZEERA

ALJAZEERA MEDIA NETWORK

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