Recent violence between Myanmar’s military and the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine state has placed thousands of mostly Muslim Rohingya in severe danger.

Rohingya activists have reported significant fires in Buthidaung, claiming the AA is responsible. However, the AA denies the allegations, attributing the fires to military airstrikes.

Thousands of Rohingya are fleeing, fearing for their lives amid increasing hostility from both the military and the AA. The military, which launched a violent crackdown on the Rohingya in 2017, is now under a genocide investigation.

Nay San Lwin, co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition, told Al Jazeera, "People are still on the road seeking safety. Many lack food, medicine, or personal belongings."

The Arakan Army, a Rakhine-based ethnic armed group with about 30,000 troops, demands autonomy for the people of Arakan. Until November, they maintained a ceasefire with the military.

Nay San Lwin mentioned that the AA issued an ultimatum last week, ordering Rohingya to leave Buthidaung by May 18. Many Rohingya, including children, are now trapped and seeking refuge in schools, hospitals, and government buildings.

Al Jazeera could not independently verify these claims due to limited internet and mobile access in the area.

The AA announced taking control of Buthidaung and dismissed accusations of arson.

Trapped in Rice Fields

Despite the ambiguity regarding the perpetrators, human rights groups warn of possible severe ethnic violence, potentially surpassing the atrocities of 2017. In that year, over 750,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh following military attacks.

Fortify Rights, a human rights organization, reports growing tensions and challenges in confirming responsible parties. "The AA and junta must avoid civilian harm and targeting infrastructure," said Sai Arkar from Fortify Rights.

The Special Advisory Council to Myanmar (SAC-M) also emphasized the critical situation, with credible reports of attacks targeting Rohingya in Buthidaung.

A Crisis Group report cautioned that the military might incite communal strife, manipulating Rohingya to fight for them with promises of wages or through conscription.

Yanghee Lee, SAC-M founder, called for immediate UN Human Rights Council intervention.

Satellite Evidence

Identifying the exact responsible party for the arson is complex, but satellite data supports local witness testimonies. ASPI analyst Nathan Russer noted that satellite and other evidence point to the AA being behind the recent fires focused on Rohingya settlements in Buthidaung.

Satellite images suggest significant fire damage to about 35 villages, indicating an orchestrated arson campaign. "The pattern strongly suggests it’s the AA, supported by multiple eyewitness accounts," Russer said.

‘Burned to the Ground’

Local Rohingya reported military airstrikes on May 19, followed by arson attacks. Nay San Lwin said the military left the town days earlier, pointing to the AA’s involvement.

Wai Wai Nu of the Women’s Peace Support Network, connected closely with Rakhine communities, believes the AA is responsible. "The situation is being described as worse than 2017," she said, noting mass killings threats from AA and the military.

With the Rohingya facing severe restrictions and harassment for years, she emphasized the need for pro-democracy movements to protect them.

Over the last day, Nay San Lwin has struggled to gather information due to poor mobile network access. "Almost the entire town has been burned to the ground, with only a few houses remaining," he stated.