Source: ALJAZEERA
ALJAZEERA MEDIA NETWORK
Analysts believe Emmanuel Macron is assessing the French populace’s sentiment and the far-right’s capability to administer.
After suffering a defeat in the European Parliament elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the country's parliament on Sunday and announced legislative elections later this month.
Here’s what you need to understand about the upcoming events and their significance:
In the elections for the European Parliament, French voters dealt a significant setback to Macron.
Preliminary results showed that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) captured over 30 percent of the votes, compared to 14.5 percent for Macron’s Renaissance (RE) party.
Renaissance narrowly avoided coming in third, closely matched with the center-left, which received 14 percent of the votes.
The European elections provide nearly 370 million Europeans the opportunity to vote for their representatives in the European Parliament—simultaneously reflecting their views on national political parties, much like a domestic election.
Macron, a steadfast supporter of the 27-nation European Union (EU), now faces a more skeptical French populace.
Analysts attribute this shift to dissatisfaction with immigration, crime, and living costs.
“For me, Europe’s unity, strength, and independence are beneficial for France, a situation that I cannot accept,” Macron stated on Sunday.
“The rise of nationalists and demagogues poses a threat to our nation and France’s role in Europe and globally,” he added.
Jacques Reland from the Global Policy Institute believes Macron's snap election call urges French citizens to choose.
“Do you support a party that undermines Europe, or do you think France benefits from a stronger Europe?” Reland explained.
Analysts speculate Macron is challenging Le Pen’s party to partially govern before the 2027 presidential election, hoping they will lose appeal.
Losing the legislative election won’t remove Macron from office. He would need to appoint a new prime minister from the opposition, potentially even from the National Rally.
Olaf Bohnke of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation suggests Macron bets on the National Rally winning and Le Pen’s party taking the prime minister role, anticipating they’ll lose favor by 2027.
If Macron’s party loses, the new prime minister will choose cabinet ministers, leading to a scenario known as cohabitation.
With three years remaining in Macron’s term, his influence on domestic matters would drastically diminish.
He would still command the military and handle foreign policy but lose control over domestic policies.
France has experienced three previous political cohabitations, most recently in 1997 when President Jacques Chirac dissolved parliament to gain a stronger majority but lost to a left-wing coalition led by the Socialist Party.
Socialist Lionel Jospin then served as prime minister for five years, implementing a law on a 35-hour workweek.
Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen’s 28-year-old protégé, is considered a potential prime ministerial candidate should Le Pen win the presidency in 2027.
Le Pen’s 2022 manifesto suggested prioritizing social housing for French nationals, processing asylum applications outside of France, and abolishing inheritance taxes for middle- and low-income families.
Macron is a strong Europhile, while Le Pen aims to dismantle the EU from within. A cohabitation between a pro-European president and a Eurosceptic nationalist party would be unprecedented in France.
Le Pen celebrated the win and endorsed Macron’s response.
'We’re ready for it,” she declared.
“We’re prepared to govern if the French grant us their trust in these upcoming legislative elections. We’re ready to reshape the country, protect French interests, halt mass immigration, and prioritize their purchasing power,” Le Pen added.
Parliamentary elections will occur in two rounds on June 30 and July 7.
Candidates will vie for 577 seats in France’s National Assembly.
Any candidate can participate in the first round within each district, but specific thresholds must be met to advance to the second round. The run-off usually includes the top two candidates, and the one with the majority of votes is elected.
If a candidate receives an absolute majority and over 25 percent of the vote total in the first round, they are elected without a second round.
In late July, Paris is set to host the Olympic Games, and the political turbulence won’t impact the preparations, according to International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach.
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