Heightened tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have sparked concerns about a potential outbreak of war in Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in his recent speech, has made threats that exacerbate the already precarious situation.

Despite Nasrallah's statement that Hezbollah does not seek an expanded war, he affirmed their readiness to counter Israel's aggression. He specifically threatened Cyprus, accusing the island of allowing Israel to use its bases for attacks on Lebanon.

“The Cypriot government should be aware that enabling Israeli operations from its territories makes it a part of the war, and we will treat it as such,” Nasrallah declared.

No official confirmation exists on Israeli use of Cypriot bases, though Israel has conducted training sorties in Cypriot airspace.

Recently, Hezbollah released drone footage over Haifa, potentially as a signal of their capabilities and a deterrent against Israeli expansion. Following Israel's announcement of approved military plans against Lebanon, over 90,000 Israelis have evacuated the northern regions, mirrored by an exodus of 90,000 individuals from southern Lebanon due to Israeli strikes.

‘No red lines crossed’

Both Hezbollah and Israel have largely adhered to engagement protocols despite escalating rhetoric and violence. Israel's assassination of Hezbollah commanders, including Taleb Abdallah, led to Hezbollah retaliating with over 200 rockets. However, analysts believe that neither side has yet fully crossed a critical line.

Eyal Lurie-Pardes of the Middle East Institute commented, “Hostilities have intensified without crossing major thresholds. Significant actions, like a rocket strike on Haifa, would indicate a major shift.”

Diplomatic efforts continue, with US envoy Amos Hochstein recently trying to de-escalate the border tensions and prevent further regional entanglement.

Anxiety in Lebanon

The looming threat of total conflict leaves many Lebanese in fear. “The approval of Israel's war plan is deeply alarming,” said political scientist Imad Salamey. “It discourages investment and tourism, crucial for Lebanon's fragile economy.”

Lebanon's aggressive stance coupled with dire economic conditions poses severe risks. The nation's infrastructure is already at a breaking point, and further warfare could be catastrophic.

Israelis want answers

Israel possibly advancing on Lebanon could result in significant damage to its own military and civilian infrastructure. Hezbollah, more formidable than Hamas, has enhanced its arsenal, including anti-aircraft missiles that have recently forced Israeli aircraft out of Lebanese airspace.

“Israel's military outlook appears unaltered by past conflicts,” noted Karim Emile Bitar, a professor in Beirut. “Their strategy against Hezbollah could backfire significantly, causing severe repercussions.”

While the Israeli government faces pressure from civilians eager to return to their northern homes, extreme political factions push more for a militaristic rather than a diplomatic resolution. However, the fallout from aggression against Hezbollah could rekindle the kind of complications seen after past conflicts with Palestinian factions.

Bitar warned, “Like the rise of Hezbollah from the ashes of the PLO, Israel's overreach might unwittingly create an even greater threat.”