On June 19, Hassan Nasrallah, the dominant leader of the Lebanese faction Hezbollah, cautioned Cyprus that aiding Israel in assaults on Lebanon could invite repercussions.

Israel’s military has signaled the green light for an offensive in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, while its foreign minister has hinted that a formal declaration of war could emerge soon.

These developments follow Hezbollah's release of footage purportedly captured by one of its drones over Haifa, Israel, showcasing its capacity to delve into Israeli airspace and presenting an implicit warning.

So, if Israel declares war on Lebanon, what implications does this hold for Cyprus? Here are the details:

Would Cyprus assist Israel in attacking Lebanon?

Historically, Cyprus has permitted Israel to utilize its airspace for training exercises, but never amid active combat – and this stance appears unchanged.

Following Nasrallah’s remarks, Cyprus affirmed its position of neutrality, stating it would not engage in any conflict.

Nonetheless, the United Kingdom maintains military bases in Cyprus, employing them for regional operations.

It is alleged that the UK has used these bases to launch strikes against the Houthis in Yemen and possibly to arm Israel in its conflicts in Gaza and southern Lebanon.

“Cyprus’s neutrally helps Hezbollah strategically,” explained Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University.

“The response signals indirectly from the EU a reluctance to support an Israeli military campaign.

“It fortifies Hezbollah's deterrent stance and suggests a broader international hesitation against supporting potential Israeli military actions,” Salamey added.

What actions by Hezbollah could concern Cyprus?

Primarily, it could target Israeli locations within Cyprus.

Such actions could wreak economic havoc on Cyprus, as described by Amal Saad, the author of "Hizbu’llah: Politics and Religion," when speaking to Al Jazeera.

“There have – I believe – been objections from Cypriot opposition politicians regarding the peril this policy [allowing its participation in conflict] poses to the economy and security,” Saad remarked.

However, some analysts argue that Hezbollah may refrain from attacking Cypriot soil due to the broader ramifications.

“The impact might be restricted to disruptions and covert operations,” opined Maha Yahya, the director of the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center. She elaborated that Hezbollah understands that striking Cyprus could draw in the EU and NATO.

Was Nasrallah’s statement meant to intimidate Cyprus?

Nasrallah’s combative speech might act as psychological maneuvering even if Hezbollah doesn’t execute its threats against Cyprus.

“[T]his speech is part of a psychological warfare campaign aimed at cautioning Hezbollah’s opponents that any wide-ranging Israeli military engagement in Lebanon would significantly impact all of Israel’s western allies, especially regional ones,” noted Karim Emile Bitar, an international relations professor at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.

Salamey further commented that such psychological tactics might prompt the EU to dissuade Israel from broadening its conflict with Lebanon.

“The doubt among Israel’s allies, exemplified by Cyprus’s stance, may cause Israel to reconsider the repercussions of extensive warfare,” Salamey suggested.

“This lack of international support and clear military goals underlines Israel’s vulnerability.”

What other concerns might Cyprus have?

Even without direct conflict, Cyprus fears a potential surge of refugees – both Lebanese and Syrians residing in Lebanon – seeking asylum on its shores.

In April, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides expressed concern over the increasing arrival of Syrian refugees from Lebanon.

The European Union shares this anxiety, recently committing over $1 billion in aid to Lebanon, primarily aimed at addressing irregular migration.

Bitar acknowledged that Hezbollah might loosen its control over its borders to encourage refugees to head to Cyprus. However, he pointed out that the primary concern for Cyprus – and the region – is the risk of Hezbollah and Israel escalating into war, whether intentional or not.

“Given the highly charged emotions and less-than-rational actors on both sides, there’s a risk that any slight miscalculation could trigger significant conflict,” he warned.

“That’s why I fear that despite no explicit decision to engage in war, accidental triggers could lead to catastrophic outcomes.”