Hezbollah’s Plans and Israel’s Threats - Are Both Sides Prepared for Conflict?

A look at Hezbollah's preparations amid escalating tensions with Israel and the potential for a wider conflict.

Beirut, Lebanon – Hezbollah is preparing for various scenarios as tensions between the group and Israel escalate.

There are indications of Israel potentially shifting its military focus from Gaza to Lebanon, supported by statements from officials such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, hinting at a redirection towards Lebanon.

Ceasefire or bust

INTERACTIVE - Israel-Lebanon cross-border attacks June-1719467423

Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has emphasized that the group will only cease its cross-border attacks on Israel when a Gaza ceasefire is agreed upon.

Regardless of Israel's military shift, analysts believe Hezbollah will maintain its stance.

Expectations of a ceasefire hit a roadblock as Netanyahu's coalition partners demanded a "complete defeat of Hamas" before considering an end to hostilities.

Projecting strength

Israeli forces on a road following a rocket attack from Lebanon, near Kiryat Shmona, Israel, June 14, 2024 [Ammar Awad/Reuters]

Nasrallah has showcased Hezbollah's capabilities, revealing the group's significant manpower and rejecting offers for additional fighters.

Additionally, Hezbollah's displays of military capabilities, such as drone footage over Israeli territories, serve as implicit threats.

Contingency plans

Amid escalating rhetoric and military posturing, Hezbollah has likely prepared strategies for various conflict scenarios in Lebanon, including limited and full-scale war.

The prospect of a limited ground invasion in south Lebanon poses risks of heavy casualties for both sides.

Diplomatic efforts, including messages relayed through intermediaries, are concurrently taking place alongside military preparations.