Glasgow, United Kingdom – The Scottish National Party (SNP) narrowly defeated Labour by one seat in the 2007 Scottish Parliament election, marking not just a change in government, but a shift in the political landscape.

Scotland had long been a bastion for the Labour Party, a trend that continued with the establishment of a devolved government in Edinburgh in 1999. Labour led the first two Scottish Parliaments, but in the third, the SNP edged out Labour, capturing 47 seats to Labour’s 46, buoyed by fervor for Scottish independence.

The SNP has ruled in Edinburgh for 17 years and held the most Scottish seats in Westminster since 2015. Yet, Labour seems poised to reclaim significant ground in the upcoming UK general election. Many voters are motivated to replace the ruling Conservatives.

"Scotland is vital for Labour, not because they need Scottish seats to form a UK government, but symbolically," said James Mitchell, a professor at the University of Edinburgh. "Winning back these seats allows Labour to claim it represents all parts of Britain."

The SNP holds 63 out of 129 seats in Edinburgh and 43 of 59 Scottish seats in the House of Commons at Westminster. Once a fringe movement, the SNP gained the right to hold a referendum on Scottish independence in 2014 but failed as Scots rejected the idea by a 55-45 percent margin. Still, independence remains a mainstream issue in Scotland, with polls indicating around half of the electorate favoring it.

Despite numerous socially progressive achievements, such as free university tuition for Scottish students and the legalization of same-sex marriage, the SNP has recently faced setbacks, including former leader Nicola Sturgeon’s failed gender reform and financial scandal involving her husband.

Currently, Labour is predicted to win a substantial majority in the House of Commons on July 4. While support for Scottish sovereignty remains strong, the SNP is expected to lose ground to Labour under the leadership of Keir Starmer.

"Support for Scottish independence often comes from voters desiring change at Westminster," continued Mitchell. "These voters could either drift away from or become more committed to independence based on the actions of a Starmer government."

A YouGov poll shows Labour leading with about 34 percent of the vote in Scotland, followed by the SNP at 30 percent and the Conservatives at just 13 percent. Many Scots see Labour as the best chance to remove the Conservative government, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

‘We need a change’

Voters like Grahame Allison, a hotelier from Islay, believe Labour offers the best hope for meaningful change. “Labour will work to improve the lives of those struggling and support the working class,” he said.

However, some Scots are skeptical of Labour’s left-wing stance, accusing Starmer’s party of adopting a right-wing agenda. Lyndsey McLean from Edinburgh, for instance, will not vote Labour despite wanting to see the Conservatives ousted.

For those committed to Scottish independence, the SNP remains the clear choice. High school teacher Alan Robertson from Glasgow plans to vote SNP, despite mixed feelings about the party’s leadership. "They offer the best chance for increased devolution or independence," he said.

James Mitchell warns that Labour must not underestimate the SNP even if they suffer significant losses. "Assuming major defeats for the SNP means Labour can ignore Scotland would be a major error," he concluded.