The foundation of European Union leadership has been altered as elections across the 27 EU countries resulted in a notable rightward shift in the European Parliament, disrupting established governments and leaving mainstream parties at a critical juncture.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen celebrated as her centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) retained the largest number of seats in the legislative assembly.

However, far-right, eurosceptic, and populist parties also emerged victorious, including Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, which led to an unexpected call for early elections by French President Emmanuel Macron.

The setback faced by liberals in France and Greens in Germany is expected to complicate the formation of a mainstream centrist alliance to steer Europe’s direction for the next five years, potentially hindering significant EU initiatives such as the Green Deal, analysts indicated.

“In this parliament, it will be challenging to discern a clear strategic agenda apart from some core principles around security and the economy,” Susi Dennison, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), stated. She predicted policymaking will become negotiation-based, with the far right exerting considerable influence over decisions.

A hard-right conundrum

The EPP secured a decisive win in the elections, increasing its control in the European Parliament with 185 out of 720 seats.

“We have won the European elections, we are the most robust party by far, serving as a stability anchor, and the public has acknowledged our leadership over the past five years,” von der Leyen announced to her supporters on Sunday as vote counting progressed.

She added that together with other groups, the EPP will “form a fortress against the extremes from both the left and the right. We will halt them, without question.”

However, it was uncertain which groups would be classified as "extreme," and if the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group—led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose Brothers of Italy party has roots in the post-World War II neo-fascist Italian Social Movement—would be included.

Even though the EPP captured roughly a quarter of the seats, its former “super grand coalition” with the liberals in Renew and the Greens could not secure a working majority of MEPs, leaving the centre-right faction in need of partners.

Von der Leyen is pursuing a second term as European Commission President, which requires a “qualified majority” of the 27 EU leaders and a majority in the European Parliament.

Before the elections, von der Leyen signaled she would consider an alliance with the often eurosceptic ECR, which is more acceptable to centrists than the far-right political bloc Identity and Democracy (ID), led by France’s National Rally. She outlined two conditions for collaboration: support for Ukraine and adherence to the rule of law.

Nonetheless, the EPP will need to carefully choose its alliances.

Left-wing mainstream parties, including the Socialist and Democrats (S&D) and the Greens, refused to cooperate with the EPP if it continues to align with the ECR.

Conversely, Meloni lauded the EU election results, noting new “opportunities to reshape Europe that have never existed before.”

Giorgio Sorgona, a lecturer at the Normale University in Pisa, noted that Meloni successfully encouraged voter turnout in the European elections, where only roughly half of Italians voted, and solidified her party's position as Italy's most popular, increasing its share from 26 percent in the 2022 general election to 28.8 percent.

Meloni, who personalized the election campaign by running for the European Parliament herself, now stands as a formidable figure in the EU.

The discourse between the EPP and Meloni is expected to be challenging for both sides, Sorgona remarked. Meloni’s party is allied domestically with Matteo Salvini’s League, which joined the ID group in the EU, and may not favor Meloni assisting the EPP in sidelining the far right.

Similarly, the EPP may find little common ground with the ECR on matters such as migrant rights in Europe and climate change reforms aimed at a green transition.

Conversely, sidelining the hard right might enable the significant losers of these elections—Renew and the Greens—to act as kingmakers, Dennison from ECFR suggested.

"The risk in that approach is that it could support the far right's narrative of the centre being undemocratic and disregarding the electorate's will," the analyst warned.

Rise of the far right

Far-right factions topped polls in numerous European nations, but the impact was most significant in France, where the National Rally received 31.5 percent of the vote, doubling Macron's Renaissance party tally.

“This significant win for patriotic movements is consistent with a historical trend worldwide towards nationalism,” Le Pen commented, asserting that her party was ready to govern the EU’s second-largest economy following early elections anticipated on June 30 and July 7.

Europe’s Identity and Democracy group accumulated 58 seats as of Monday, marking an 8.1 percent rise from the last EU election in 2019.

In addition to the National Rally's success in France, the group benefited from the Freedom Party of Austria's strong more than 25 percent vote share and the Netherlands' Party for Freedom's over 17 percent support.

In Belgium, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo resigned following his party’s poor performance, trailing behind the Flemish nationalist Vlaams Belang party.

Despite facing scandals, Germany’s Alternative for Germany party (AfD) secured second place in Europe’s largest economy with 16 percent of the vote, outperforming Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party, the Social Democrats, and advancing 5 percentage points from 2019.

“The weak outcome of Scholz’s coalition intensifies the pressure on his government,” York Albrecht, a researcher at the Institute for European Politics in Berlin, observed before impending budget discussions. Albrecht noted that the AfD's significant turnout, especially in eastern Germany, indicated the party's growing establishment in the country’s political landscape, though their results were slightly lower than earlier polls, suggesting some voters were deterred by scandals.

The AfD abstained from joining established European political groups after being removed from the ID group following controversial remarks by a leading candidate about the Nazi SS unit. Additionally, an aide was charged with spying for China, and another candidate was accused of accepting bribes from a pro-Russian news source.

Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, stood out amid the far-right ascendency, delivering one of the election's biggest surprises. The newly formed Tisza party claimed 30 percent of Hungary's vote, marking the worst-ever performance for Fidesz in a European Parliament election with only 44 percent.

If far-right and hard-right groups were to coalesce into a single entity, they would be the second most powerful force in Europe after the EPP. However, analysts believe this is improbable due to divergences over the war in Ukraine between the Atlanticist ECR and the Russia-leaning ID.

“Unifying the groups is not a pertinent debate,” Albrecht stated. “We will witness cooperation and coordination among MEPs” with far-right and hard-right factions working together on mutual interests, including stricter migration policies and measures to dismantle European environmental regulations.